Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 21.135034 23.176639 25.464937 28.249344 31.587702 35.518100 40.584777
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.842935 20.531795 23.817130 28.243865 34.256483 42.491397 55.377220
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.333875 18.290470 22.151850 27.814024 36.424505 50.170304 77.235035
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.697659 16.845191 21.202371 28.113948 39.892937 62.267543 122.800944
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 12.339791 15.540827 20.183107 28.051530 42.929448 76.756749 217.373359
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.317242 14.546630 19.424560 28.210294 46.615794 97.885993 542.061685
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.484045 13.708319 18.750966 28.339014 50.496579 127.897225 5861.639227
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.948679 13.244140 18.593336 29.397016 57.491165 194.230042 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.247919 12.436343 17.722812 28.787644 59.792827 255.501068 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.719218 11.846393 17.145555 28.662245 63.737671 381.956087 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.334676 11.450208 16.856848 29.114944 70.374272 765.460009 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.950485 11.016514 16.437255 29.152572 75.789278 2050.575794 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.604451 10.641500 16.128435 29.532327 84.406962 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.267563 10.257664 15.763444 29.715849 93.308660 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.916115 9.822012 15.247021 29.374145 99.503043 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.661340 9.537755 15.007488 29.790943 113.023604 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.397544 9.216810 14.653691 29.781809 124.575953 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 6.174220 8.952483 14.389849 29.998466 140.807007 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 5.967483 8.703349 14.130336 30.169366 159.549662 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 5.839994 8.591231 14.159503 31.366955 204.713373 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 5.615356 8.281244 13.708198 30.701146 214.865156 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 5.438026 8.050459 13.416706 30.570413 240.855813 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 5.307396 7.900482 13.296959 31.081590 298.678716 NaN NaN